Why French elections are always a bit of a gamble…
Pau, Wednesday,
Elections are often predictable, polls are usually right... While that may be true for British, German or even American elections it is almost impossible to predict the verdict of a French presidential election.
The reason is to do with the French voting system which has two elements. In the first round, equivalent to most countries' systems, every candidate stands. But the winner and runner-up of this poll then have to stand in a second round, at which point the 'loser' of the first round often gathers enough second preferences to eventually triumph.
Knowing that there is a second round also encourages people to vote for more radical candidates in the first round, and the whole system tends to leave pollsters floundering as opinion swirls.
Pau, Wednesday,
Elections are often predictable, polls are usually right... While that may be true for British, German or even American elections it is almost impossible to predict the verdict of a French presidential election.
The reason is to do with the French voting system which has two elements. In the first round, equivalent to most countries' systems, every candidate stands. But the winner and runner-up of this poll then have to stand in a second round, at which point the 'loser' of the first round often gathers enough second preferences to eventually triumph.
Knowing that there is a second round also encourages people to vote for more radical candidates in the first round, and the whole system tends to leave pollsters floundering as opinion swirls.
"It is almost impossible to predict the verdict of a French presidential election"
It is often said that in the first round you vote with your heart, and in the second you vote with your head. Hence there is less need to vote tactically in the first round.
• Back in 2002, the far-right politician, Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of the French National Front, defied every single poll and qualified for the second round narrowly beating socialist candidate Lionel Jospin by 1%.
• In 2007, François Bayrou, the centrist mayor of the town of Pau in the Pyrenees-Atlantic region, scored surprisingly well while Jean-Marie Le Pen fared badly this time.
• In 2012, it was the turn of the far-left to defy predictions as Jean-Luc Mélenchon polled at 3% but ended up with 11% – while the incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy lost to outsider François Hollande, leader of the French Socialists.
• In 2017, the right-wing candidate of the Republican party, François Fillon, crashed after he was charged as part of the so-called "Penelopegate" scandal.
Given the conservative and respectful style of French media, Penelopegate was only revealed by the French satirical newspaper Le Canard Enchainé. But once the news was out, voters were disgusted to find that Fillon had been paying his wife and five children €900 000 in public money for little or no work. Up until this point, Fillon had been the favorite to win the election... But by refusing to resign for another Republican candidate like Alain Juppé or even former president Sarkozy, Fillon failed to make it through to the second round allowing the outsider, and fellow center-right candidate Emmanuel Macron to go through to the run-off and eventually win the election.
So what does all this say about the next election in 2022? Macron is favorite to be reelected but the French system leaves plenty of room for upsets. It's not entirely certain Macron can even get to the second round, and if he does, it's a toss-up whether he will meet far-left Mélenchon, the liberal candidate of Les Républicains or one of the far-right candidates, Marine Le Pen or Eric Zemmour. The two-round system may well have some more tricks up its sleeve.
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