Sun Tzu's ancient advice for victory in the Russian-Ukrainian war…
Writing in The Guardian in August, Julian Borger notes that "the first casualty of the Ukrainian counteroffensive was wishful thinking."
Indeed, we might go further than that and say the first casualty was strategic thinking.
In many ways, it seems that - on both sides of the war - the lessons of the 2500 year-old book The Art of War have not been learned. Sun Tzu noted very firmly that the worst thing is to attack "walled cities" yet tens of thousands died doing just that in Bakhmut and Mariupol, while the next worst error is attacking the enemy in the field, which seems to be the central idea behind the "counterattack".
Today, it seems experts in the art of war put aside philosophical sophistication. Instead, As Andrew Kramer put it in a report for the New York Times, currently there are two strategies governing assaults on entrenched military positions: either that they can be "stealthy and surgical, employing surprise" or else that they can be "launched with overwhelming force, using drone strikes, or tanks and artillery".
Ukraine has adopted the latter method, influenced by Western training doctrine which assumes things like high-tech equipment and air superiority which the Ukrainians just do not have.
In fact, the Ukrainian war is being fought by both sides using tactics that seem to be driven by dogma rather than anything more thoughtful or reflective.
And the result is that both sides hemorrhage thousands of men and the counter-offensive is bogged down in minefields somewhere north of the Dnieper River.
It's all a far cry from Sun Tzu's idea of intelligent warfare. As he says, very firmly, in his book, "the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting". Failing that "Rapidity is the essence of war".
When the Russians appeared in Crimea as anonymous "Little Green Men" and successfully took over the whole peninsula with hardly a shot being fired, this was Sun Tzu's advice being successfully implemented in practice.
And Vladimir Putin seems to have thought he could play the same trick twice with his expansion of the war to Ukraine proper. But here, Sun Tzu's second piece of advice worked against him. The Chinese sage essentially says victory goes to those who have control of information. In Crimea, the divided Ukrainian politicians and the army alike were unsure even of the most basic facts, but today, to some extent, Putin has baffled not the Ukrainians but his own soldiers. His conscript army is not supposed to be even fighting a war, but only taking part in a special military operation, which in turn is not located in Ukraine but rather in the new territories of Greater Russia. Conscripted soldiers are not told that they are going to the front line, they are told they are going on "routine exercises". Oh and to "bring their own first aid kits". You won't find here any echo of Sun Tzu's advice that "he will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks".
Of course, Russian generals know a bit more… But even here, their ability to "pick the easier route", as Sun Tzu always recommends, is limited by the personal intervention of Vladimir Putin, who micromanages every part of the war and invariably opts for full-scale confrontation as a means for (he hopes) quicker results.
Yet there is little more subtlety on the Western side. The Western governments do not want to hear Sun Tzu's advice never to attack when the terrain is not favorable, nor to avoid attacking where the enemy is strong.
Sun Tzu writes:
"War is a game of deception. Therefore feign incapability when in fact capable; feign inactivity when ready to strike; appear to be far away when actually nearby... When the enemy is greedy for gains, hand out a bait to lure him; when he is in disorder, attack and overcome him; when he boasts substantial strength, be doubly prepared against him; and when he is formidable, evade him. If he is given to anger, provoke him. If he is timid and careful, encourage his arrogance. If his forces are rested, wear them down. If he is united as one, divide him. Attack when he is least prepared."
Sun Tzu emphasizes above all the control of information. "Information is power". Yet the counter-attack was telegraphed for months. The price of that mistake has been paid for in lives.
In fact, nowadays comparisons are made with the bloody battles of the First World War, battles that also ignored every one of Sun Tzu's principles.
The Golden Horde Gives Way to a Golden Era
The Dnieper river region of Ukraine has seen many wars and invasions ever since the Scythians, horse-riding nomads originally from Persia, built the first fortresses here in the sixth century BCE.
These warriors used the Chinese tactics: they tricked the enemy deep into venturing into friendly territory, before cutting them off from vital sources and attacking with their most formidable asset, bows and arrows shot from horseback.
At the time of the Kyivan Rus', the island of Khortytsia, on the Dnieper river, was a garrison for Ukrainian troops that fought nomads, as documented in chronicles from 1103, 1190 and 1223. The battles did not always end in victory: Khortytsia was ruled by the pitiless and bloodthirsty Golden Horde (the army of the Mongol empire) for over a century.
But eventually, at the end of the 15th century, Cossacks (themselves descended from the Golden Horde) created a stronghold on the island. From here, they found it possible to defend themselves, keep fish and bees, breed livestock in the steppe and hunt in the forests.
Picture by Matt R. (on Flickr)
