7 Reasons Biden Won't Run Again

Joe Biden says he wants to stand again, but here are seven reasons to believe it won't happen.

7. Odds are, Trump won't run again 

There's much chatter about a Biden-Trump rematch, but the reality is that Trump was a one-trick pony whose star has definitely fallen. After years of lawyering up and beating off opponents - sometimes literally - the courts are now finally closing in. Trump is more likely to be in court in 2024 than running for office. Sure, he is campaigning right now to run - but that's because it's in his interest to let people think he'll run again. 

A 2022 OpenSecrets analysis of federal campaign finance found former President Trump's political operation had raised more than $500 million since the 2020 presidential election.

6. Unlikeable Joe.

Well, that's putting it a bit strong. But the fact is, Sleepy Joe is not a popular president. The only recent president to be more unpopular is Trump - and guess what - he lost when he stood for reelection. As of the end of 2022, Biden had a median approval rating of 45 percent. At a similar point in their tenures, Obama, Bush and Clinton had median ratings of 48 percent, 56.5 percent and 50 percent respectively. Trump was at 40%. 

5. This time, the Republicans will field a stronger candidate 

Connected to the above point about how unpopular Trump was, is that it's quite possible Biden wouldn't have beaten a 'regular' Republican. After five years in the wilderness, the GOP seem to have learned the lesson. The Hill predicts Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will most likely be the winner of the Republican primaries. Lurking in the wings is Trump's VP, Mike Pence and Trump's most serious rival back in 2016 - Ted Cruz. Both men are unreformed conservative 'WASPs'. However, a smart move from the GOP might be to turn to a colored woman. Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley would be their first ever female, ethnic minority candidate. 

4. Hunter Biden 

Joe might just have lost the last election if the Hunter Biden laptop story's coverage hadn't been tuned down by most media outlets, both print and online. Hunter Biden, the son of the US President, has long been subject to criticism over alleged unethical and illegal practices, including the use of his father's name for financial gains. 

But if Joe runs again, this time all the details of Hunter's substance abuse and international lobbying with countries like China, would come out and certainly hurt Joe's chances.

3. Covid 

A significant part of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' appeal - and electoral success - stems from his opposition to COVID-19–related lockdowns and vaccine mandates. Trump too, is a covid-skeptic, but is associated with cranky views about injecting bleach. This, he rowed back, was a "joke" but his more earnest medical endorsement of hydroxychloroquine, almost singlehandedly drove international interest in the drug with prescriptions spiking nearly 2,000 percent after his speech. Public opinion has shifted now on Covid in the US and Biden's hardline policies, including mandatory vaccination for over 100 million American workers (mandates largely struck down by the Supreme Court as unconstitutional), alienated a lot of mainstream opinion. 

2. The number 86 

Joe Biden says he thinks he can do the job until he is aged 86. That's a big ask. The average age of death for most American males is only 77! According to CNN, the question of Biden's age is "omnipresent" in nearly every conversation. Focus groups have found voters bring Biden's age up constantly and voters associate two words with him: "ineffectual" and "a puppet". It's not a good start for a campaigner who has always fumbled phrases and speeches. 

1. Changes to 'Functional Brain Connectivity'

Rulers - from King Canute on - often think that they can defy reality. But the reality is that human beings age out, certainly after age 80. And being President of the United States is, in its way, quite a demanding job. 

Biden, we know, because we're told so all the time, isn't worried though. yet could that in itself be part of the problem?

Building on decades of research on the neural circuitry of decision-making, researchers now think that while younger people tend to consider what will provide the most benefit in the future when they make decisions, older people tend to make choices based on how past decisions panned out. That's a 'lazy' thinking strategy - and one that could be disastrous for America if used by the President. Ironically, it is this very problem that could lead Joe Biden to think he should run again!