Why Trump's path to victory is way more sinuous than you think…
"Trump cruises to victory" writes Reuters, "Even Biden says it is OVER" adds the Daily Mail… It's hard not to see Donald Trump as the official candidate of the Republicans in the autumn - and that gives him a certain status and seriousness.
However, Mary Trump, niece of the former president turned indefatigable critic, sees the result differently. Writing in her newsletter after the New Hampshire results came in she says:
"Donald's having a win of any kind is depressing. How is there even one voter willing to pull a lever for a twice-impeached insurrectionist and rapist who is currently facing 91 indictments?"
But then she says she took a closer look and started to see cracks in the Donald's support. Because the key thing about Trump is that, from his perma-tan to his "acing" of cognitive tests, it is all about appearances. Reality is what emerges - very slowly - in court filings.
Reality is that Trump and his team plotted and instigated a fake electors scheme which came to a head with the January 6, 2021 invasion of the Capitol, a violent attack which led to deaths and injuries. A year after the events, some three hundred rioters had been sentenced to prison terms, with Henry 'Enrique' Tarrio, former leader of the Proud Boys, sentenced to 22 years. And the fact is that Trump, too is under indictment for his key role.
At every step of the prosecution, though, Trump's team of lawyers have sought to delay proceedings. And for one very good reason: uniquely in legal history, this defendant has a very good shot at becoming president. With that, comes a "get out of jail free" card.
So the point about the 2024 election is that it is a race not so much between Trump and Biden, as between Trump and the US courts. Polls regularly indicate that Trump would win the first race, as US electors lost faith in Biden partly because of his age and (in the case of many younger voters) partly because of his support for Israel's ruthless assault on the Gaza strip that has left over 25 000 civilians dead. But the second race - with the courts - ain't over yet!
So the US election has become a game of chess, in which prosecutors have overwhelming superiority on the board but Trump keeps one move ahead, and potentially can force a stalemate.
As of January 2024, the trial is scheduled for March 4. By one of those strange twists of fate, that is the day before 'Super Tuesday' in the electoral calendar, the day when the greatest number of U.S. states hold primary elections. The sight of Trump in the dock could on its own dent his support.
Prosecutor Smith's team has said they anticipate their case against Trump taking four to six weeks. Judges then like to have a think before announcing a conclusion, which takes us probably to the end of May for a verdict. However, even after a conviction, the sentencing process would likely take several months. Then Trump would launch endless appeals that could take up to a year.
But we think just the announcement that Trump is guilty might be enough to derail his election bandwagon. Because as Politico's Jonathan Lemire puts it, "Donald Trump has a problem". Which is that there's already a whole swathe of the Republican electorate and a good chunk of independents who appear firmly committed to not voting for him in November, if he becomes the nominee.
Trump's support has already shrunk to his "base". The elderly voters and the poorly educated. During the 2016 presidential campaign, candidate Trump several-times commented: "I love the poorly-educated"!
A recent University of California poll showed Trump's share of the state's primary vote dropping from 45% among voters who only attended high school, to 31% among those who had attended some college or a trade school, to 21% among college graduates, and 15% among those who did postgraduate work.
Haley's support was not enough to beat Trump's usual coalition of the "ignorant and the bigoted" in the New Hampshire Primary - but it's a big enough group to cause problems for Trump in the general election. It's revealing that almost half of Haley's supporters say they would vote for Biden over Trump, according to a new poll. "I can't vote for Trump. He's a crook. He's too corrupt," said New Hampshire independent voter Scott Simeone, who previously voted for Donald twice. "I voted for him, and I didn't realize he's as corrupt as he is."
If Trump weren't running against an octogenarian, the electoral maths would be totally against him. As it is, common sense ought to favor Haley as Trump is not only known to be a liar and a notable bully but also a man facing a string of criminal cases. But everyone is "innocent until proved guilty" and while there is little doubt about what the eventual verdict will be, for the time being Trump, like many American footballers, is playing out the clock.
However, as long as Nikki Haley can stay in the race until "Super Tuesday", that is March 5, Trump's house of cards will continue to totter.
Nothing happened. But the questions they raised about Trump's mental acuity roared back last week when he confused top GOP rival Nikki Haley with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Speaking to a rally in Concord, New Hampshire, Trump shouted:
"You know, by the way, they never report the crowd on Jan. 6. You know, Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley. Nikki Haley, you know they, do you know they destroyed all of the information, all of the evidence, everything, deleted and destroyed all of it? All of it because of lots of things like Nikki Haley in charge of security. We offered her 10,000 people, soldiers, National Guard, whatever they want. They turned it down."
Like for so much else, Trump says that's all fantasy.