As voters go to the polls in France, Macron’s lead looks increasingly vulnerable…
Rouen, Sunday,
When, less than a month ago, and just one day before the official deadline, the incumbent French president Emmanuel Macron declared himself a candidate for the 2022 general election in France he seemed CERTAIN to win the election. Not a single candidate seemed capable of beating him. Yet, in today's latest polls the results might now be as close as 51-49%…
The main information TV channels in the country like BFMTV, Franceinfo, LCI or CNEWS, who were just a few weeks prior, almost betting Macron would win the election are now labeling his campaign as an extraordinary disaster.
So what's been going wrong?
It all started to fall apart on the day of his first 'rendezvous' with the voters. This meeting was presented as an opportunity for everyday people to ask him about anything they liked. They would take the mic', explain their concern - and Macron would give his personal response to it. However, it emerged that the people at the gathering AND their questions were selected in advance so that the president could answer them as easily as possible.
Macron looked like he was taking the voters for fools. But then it got worse. Asked if he would participate in a debate with the eleven other presidential hopefuls, he flatly replied "I will not participate in any debates before the second round", arguing that previous presidents had adopted the same policy. (In France, there are two rounds of voting: one with all the eligible candidates and a second round, two weeks later, between just the top two.)
However, since first-round debates didn't even exist until very recently, Macron's decision quickly became seen as showing contempt to the voters. And so, although at the end of February and the beginning of March, Macron was regularly polling in the lead with around 33% of the voting intentions for the first round, his absence from the campaign with only ONE miserable meeting in Paris scheduled before voting started, led to his support in the polls for the first round crumbling.
It’s not just first-round polls that are problematic though. Even if Macron does make it through to the run-off (as still seems virtually certain) his fate in the second round is now far less clear. A month ago, Macron was polling close to 61% against 39% for his most likely opponent, the far-right nationalist candidate Marine le Pen. But now, with left-wing voters preparing to "hold their noses" and refuse to vote for Macron, polls show the vote is on a knife edge with Macron as low as 51% to Le Pen.
Other factors that have chipped away at both Macron's lead and his credibility have been accusations from the center-right candidate, Valerie Pécresse that Macron has 'borrowed' key parts of her manifesto to compensate for his own lack of ideas after five years in power. While the French media law states that every candidate MUST have the same media coverage time as the others during election period… Macron, being the president, has already been in the media so much that many channels have decided to limit his coverage while concentrating on the campaign activities of the other candidates.
The French will head to the polls in just one week now. At the moment, it is impossible to predict the results, but one thing we can say for sure is that "it’s not over until it’s over".
When, less than a month ago, and just one day before the official deadline, the incumbent French president Emmanuel Macron declared himself a candidate for the 2022 general election in France he seemed CERTAIN to win the election. Not a single candidate seemed capable of beating him. Yet, in today's latest polls the results might now be as close as 51-49%…
The main information TV channels in the country like BFMTV, Franceinfo, LCI or CNEWS, who were just a few weeks prior, almost betting Macron would win the election are now labeling his campaign as an extraordinary disaster.
So what's been going wrong?
It all started to fall apart on the day of his first 'rendezvous' with the voters. This meeting was presented as an opportunity for everyday people to ask him about anything they liked. They would take the mic', explain their concern - and Macron would give his personal response to it. However, it emerged that the people at the gathering AND their questions were selected in advance so that the president could answer them as easily as possible.
Macron looked like he was taking the voters for fools. But then it got worse. Asked if he would participate in a debate with the eleven other presidential hopefuls, he flatly replied "I will not participate in any debates before the second round", arguing that previous presidents had adopted the same policy. (In France, there are two rounds of voting: one with all the eligible candidates and a second round, two weeks later, between just the top two.)
However, since first-round debates didn't even exist until very recently, Macron's decision quickly became seen as showing contempt to the voters. And so, although at the end of February and the beginning of March, Macron was regularly polling in the lead with around 33% of the voting intentions for the first round, his absence from the campaign with only ONE miserable meeting in Paris scheduled before voting started, led to his support in the polls for the first round crumbling.
It’s not just first-round polls that are problematic though. Even if Macron does make it through to the run-off (as still seems virtually certain) his fate in the second round is now far less clear. A month ago, Macron was polling close to 61% against 39% for his most likely opponent, the far-right nationalist candidate Marine le Pen. But now, with left-wing voters preparing to "hold their noses" and refuse to vote for Macron, polls show the vote is on a knife edge with Macron as low as 51% to Le Pen.
Other factors that have chipped away at both Macron's lead and his credibility have been accusations from the center-right candidate, Valerie Pécresse that Macron has 'borrowed' key parts of her manifesto to compensate for his own lack of ideas after five years in power. While the French media law states that every candidate MUST have the same media coverage time as the others during election period… Macron, being the president, has already been in the media so much that many channels have decided to limit his coverage while concentrating on the campaign activities of the other candidates.
The French will head to the polls in just one week now. At the moment, it is impossible to predict the results, but one thing we can say for sure is that "it’s not over until it’s over".
The Battle for a Place in the Second Round
While Macron seems to have won the battle for the center-ground and a place in the second round still seems certain, the fight to join him there in the run-off is now focused on just two candidates...
These are the far-right "National Rally" candidate, Marine le Pen and the far-left "Free France" candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Mélenchon has made quite a spectacular comeback as he - along with all the other left-wing candidates - were all polling under 10% just a few months ago with the center-right Republican candidate Valerie Pécresse, and the two far-right candidates Éric Zemmour and Marine le Pen well ahead. In fact, it’s only in the last two months that Mélenchon and the left have emerged as true challengers for the presidency. As the BuffPo goes to press, Macron is polling at 27% le Pen 20% and Mélenchon 15% whilst all the others have crumbled to single figures. Macron will be rooting for a re-run of 2017 when he comfortably beat Le Pen as all the polls show that in a head-to-head with Mélenchon - he'd most probably lose.
These are the far-right "National Rally" candidate, Marine le Pen and the far-left "Free France" candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Mélenchon has made quite a spectacular comeback as he - along with all the other left-wing candidates - were all polling under 10% just a few months ago with the center-right Republican candidate Valerie Pécresse, and the two far-right candidates Éric Zemmour and Marine le Pen well ahead. In fact, it’s only in the last two months that Mélenchon and the left have emerged as true challengers for the presidency. As the BuffPo goes to press, Macron is polling at 27% le Pen 20% and Mélenchon 15% whilst all the others have crumbled to single figures. Macron will be rooting for a re-run of 2017 when he comfortably beat Le Pen as all the polls show that in a head-to-head with Mélenchon - he'd most probably lose.
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